Researchers across Europe have, for the first time, used an integrated approach to modelling the future economic consequences of climate change in Europe. The group, led by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Madrid, Spain, integrated climate data, physical impact models and economic models to quantify the potential consequences of climate change on four market impact categories – agriculture, river floods, coastal areas and tourism – and one non-market impact, namely human health.
This is the first time that three different types of models have been integrated on such a scale. The project used high-resolution climate data, impact models specific to each industry sector and a multisectoral, multiregional economic model and ran the five different systems in parallel, under four different climate scenarios.
“We closed the loop,” the JRC’s Juan-Carlos Ciscar told environmentalresearchweb. “Previous research may have estimated the effect of climate change on agriculture in one country, but our work has gone one step further and looked at how this will affect not only the economy of that country but also the trading partners of that country.”